Shipping Outlook

Over the past fortnight, the container shipping market has tightened further, with freight rates increasing once again as we head into July. Many importers are now seeing substantially higher freight costs than those experienced only a few weeks ago, with carriers continuing to implement General Rate Increases (GRIs), Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) and other pricing adjustments across a number of trade lanes.

While many expected 2026 to be a relatively stable year for container shipping, a combination of strong demand, constrained vessel capacity and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has created a very different market. Global freight indices continue to climb, reflecting the upward pressure being experienced across much of the industry.

Adding to these increases, at least one carrier has announced a USD $500 per TEU Congestion Surcharge, effective from 15 July, on cargo moving from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea and South East Asia to Australia, citing extensive waiting times at Asian ports and the additional costs associated with ongoing congestion.

The impact extends beyond freight rates. Carriers are increasingly adjusting sailing schedules, omitting ports, delaying departures and recovering vessels from earlier congestion. As a result, published schedules should be treated as a guide rather than a guarantee, with both departure and arrival dates continuing to shift. Securing confirmed bookings has also become more challenging as available space tightens.

Locally, the precautionary evacuation of Fremantle Ports over the weekend and into the start of this week has caused further disruption to vessel schedules. Flow on impacts are expected over the coming weeks as shipping lines work to restore schedule integrity.

For importers and exporters, the key message is that flexibility and forward planning remain essential. The market continues to change quickly, and booking cargo as early as possible will provide the greatest opportunity to secure space and minimise the impact of ongoing schedule changes.

As always, Michelle and I continue to monitor developments closely and will keep clients informed as conditions evolve. Below, we've outlined some of the key factors currently shaping the global freight market and what they may mean for your supply chain.

Thanks - Amanda