Shipping Outlook

Over the past fortnight, the freight market has become a little more nuanced. While weather related disruption continues to affect vessel schedules across Asia, freight rates are no longer moving uniformly across all trade lanes.

Typhoon Bavi has brought heavy rain, flooding and transport disruption across parts of the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and eastern China, adding further pressure to an already congested regional network. Major ports including Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen and Qingdao continue to feature among the world's most congested container ports, alongside key transhipment hubs such as Singapore and Port Klang. Although the typhoon has now passed, the recovery period often creates its own challenges, with ports working through backlogs and vessels arriving outside their planned windows.

As a result, published vessel schedules remain fluid. ETDs and ETAs continue to slip across many services as carriers work to recover schedule integrity, meaning transit times are still proving difficult to predict with confidence.

Interestingly, while congestion remains high, we're beginning to see freight rates respond differently depending on the trade lane. Additional vessel capacity has been introduced on services into Australia's east coast, resulting in softer freight rates from both North East Asia and South East Asia. Reflecting these improved conditions, MSC has also withdrawn its planned Service Disruption Surcharge on shipments from Asia to Australia.

Western Australia is experiencing a different picture. Space remains tighter on services into Fremantle, and freight rates from both North East Asia and South East Asia have increased again. Early booking remains advisable, particularly for time-sensitive cargo, as available space can fill quickly.

Outside of Asia, conditions remain relatively stable. Europe and North America continue to offer reasonable space availability, while services from India remain tighter, with seasonal weather continuing to impact port operations and vessel schedules.

Looking ahead, the key question will be whether the current congestion is temporarily absorbing vessel capacity and supporting freight rates, or whether rates will soften as weather conditions improve and ports work through the backlog. For now, flexibility remains important, and we continue to recommend booking shipments as early as practical to minimise the impact of ongoing schedule changes.

As always, Michelle and I continue to monitor developments across the major trade lanes and will keep clients informed as market conditions evolve. Below are some of the key developments shaping international freight over the past fortnight.

Thanks - Amanda