Shipping Outlook

Global and local trade is certainly having a moment, as importers and exporters navigate a wave of additional costs flowing through supply chains.

Across both sea, airn and land, the common theme is fuel.

Previously flagged surcharges are now being formalised and applied more consistently by carriers. While these remain within earlier guidance, they vary depending on trade lane, direction, and operator.

Some of the pricing can seem counterintuitive. For example, cargo moving from Europe to Australia may attract lower surcharges than cargo ex-China. This largely comes down to vessel size , larger ships on the Europe trade allow fuel costs to be spread across more containers, while smaller vessels on regional trades increase the cost per unit.

These surcharges remain under constant review, making this a moving target.

From a sea freight perspective, April has opened with a mixed picture. Some carriers have held rates, while others eased slightly. However, that softer trend is beginning to reverse as global disruption places upward pressure back on pricing. LCL cargo has also been impacted, with emergency surcharges now being applied more broadly.

On the transport side, earlier forecasts have materialised, with fuel surcharges increasing and continuing to fluctuate week by week.

Airfreight remains constrained. Airlines are rerouting to avoid risk areas, particularly around key Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. Reduced schedules are limiting capacity, increasing transit times, and pushing rates higher. These pressures are also flowing through to landside costs, including additional surcharges on import airfreight.

Earlier in the year, there were signs of improving reliability. Global liner schedule reliability opened 2026 at 62.4% in January, the strongest start to a year in several years and an improvement on last year.

However, with ongoing disruption across key regions, this is unlikely to remain stable.

Overall, while base freight rates into Australia are relatively steady, the increases being seen are largely driven by fuel related surcharges rather than underlying rate movement.

As always, it’s not just the headline rates to watch, it’s everything around them.