Airfreight Rates Surge as Capacity Tightens and Fuel Costs Climb

Airfreight is heating up again, and not in a good way.

Recent data from Drewry highlights just how quickly the market is shifting, with rate increases of up to 95% recorded between February and March. The spike is being driven by a combination of reduced capacity and rising fuel costs, both linked to the ongoing disruption in the Middle East.

One of the clearest examples is the Shanghai to Dubai trade, where rates have climbed to approximately USD $8.60 per kilo, edging closer to the record highs seen during the COVID period. However, it’s not just base rates driving this increase. Fuel surcharges are playing a significant role, with some lanes experiencing month-on-month increases of up to 290%.

At the same time, available capacity is tightening. Key regional carriers including Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad Airways have all scaled back operations to varying degrees, further constraining supply and placing upward pressure on rates.

The impact is widespread. Around half of the global airfreight lanes monitored have seen rate increases of 20% or more in March alone.

It’s important to recognise that this is not just a regional issue. The Middle East plays a critical role in global airfreight connectivity, and disruptions in the region are now flowing through to markets well beyond the immediate trade lanes.

Looking ahead, it will likely take some time before the full impact of these disruptions is reflected across the market. In the meantime, volatility is expected to remain, making access to timely data and market insight more important than ever when planning airfreight movements.