Asia’s Container Congestion Could Last Well Into 2027

Asia’s container congestion is starting to look less like a short-term disruption and more like a supply chain issue that could take months to unwind.

Repeated typhoons, port congestion, vessel bunching and increased demand ahead of China’s Golden Week are putting pressure on available vessel capacity across the region. While some of the immediate disruption may ease, the knock-on effects are likely to take considerably longer to work through the network.

Sea-Intelligence estimates that 8.5% of the global containership fleet is currently being absorbed by delays, equivalent to around 3 million TEU of capacity effectively tied up. While these vessels remain part of the global fleet, they are not operating normally. A delay at one port can affect the vessel’s next sailing, its following port calls and the cargo waiting to connect to it.

Based on recovery rates from previous major disruptions, Sea-Intelligence estimates it could take seven to 10 months for congestion to return to the lower levels seen in June 2025. If that proves accurate, the effects of the current disruption could continue well into 2027.

The pressure is already being reflected in intra-Asia freight rates. Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index has reached record levels, with Shanghai–Laem Chabang rates increasing 22% and Shanghai-Jakarta increasing 12%. China to India is also showing just how tight vessel space has become, with average spot rates from Shanghai to JNPA increasing around 20% since the end of August.

Golden Week is adding another layer of pressure as businesses look to move cargo before the extended holiday period. When demand increases at the same time as vessels are already being delayed, available space can tighten quickly and the resulting disruption can spread well beyond the original port or trade lane.

For Australian importers, this can mean more than simply higher freight rates. Late vessel arrivals, changes to sailing schedules, missed transhipments and cargo being rolled to later sailings can all have a flow-on effect on delivery times and inventory planning.

This is why forward planning and communication are particularly important while the network remains under pressure. Allowing additional time for transit, getting documentation finalised early and discussing alternative services or routings with your freight forwarder can provide greater flexibility when schedules change.

The current situation is also a reminder that the size of the global container fleet does not necessarily reflect the capacity actually available to move cargo. When vessels are delayed, that capacity is effectively taken out of the network until schedules recover.

With congestion already affecting freight rates and vessel availability across Asia, the next few months will be important to watch. If recovery takes as long as current estimates suggest, the effects of today’s disruption could be felt well beyond Golden Week and into 2027.