Easter Eggs & Supply Chain Reality

On paper, chocolate should be cheaper this Easter.

Global cocoa prices have dropped significantly, from around USD $12,000 per tonne in 2024 to roughly USD $3,000 today. But despite that, consumers are still seeing high prices on supermarket shelves.

The reason comes down to how supply chains actually work.

Chocolate manufacturers don’t buy cocoa in real time. They typically secure supply months in advance, meaning the Easter chocolate we’re buying now was produced using cocoa purchased when prices were at their peak. In other words, today’s retail prices are reflecting yesterday’s market conditions.

At the same time, cocoa is only one part of the cost story. Freight rates remain elevated, fuel is volatile, and production costs continue to rise. So even though the raw commodity price has fallen, the overall cost to produce and move chocolate hasn’t followed at the same pace.

What this really highlights is the ongoing challenge of volatility.

With around 70% of global cocoa production concentrated in West Africa, supply is highly exposed to weather, disease, and geopolitical disruptions. Prices may have eased for now, but uncertainty remains, and that’s shaping how businesses respond.

Some Australian producers are already adapting by investing in local cocoa production to reduce their reliance on global markets. While it may not always be the cheapest option, it offers greater control and consistency, which is becoming increasingly important.

This Easter is a good reminder that supply chains don’t move as quickly as markets do. Price changes take time to flow through, and resilience isn’t just about cost, it’s about stability in an unpredictable environment.

Happy Easter Everyone!