Containerised Shipping Faces a New Reality in 2026
Global containerised shipping continues to operate under extraordinary conditions as the ongoing disruption in the Middle East reshapes international supply chains, vessel deployment and freight market dynamics.
Now entering its third month, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most significant geopolitical events impacting global trade in recent years. With reports of military restrictions on vessel movements and no clear resolution in sight, the situation is creating prolonged uncertainty across shipping markets.
For importers and exporters, the flow-on effects are already being felt through changing trade routes, tighter vessel availability and ongoing pressure across global logistics networks.
Container Shipping Holding Steady - For Now
While tanker markets have experienced record earnings and bulk shipping has shown surprising resilience, container shipping has remained relatively stable throughout Q1 2026.
One of the key reasons has been the continued impact of Red Sea diversions. Carriers are still rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid conflict zones, which significantly extends voyage times and absorbs additional vessel capacity from the market.
In simple terms, ships are spending longer at sea, which reduces the number of vessels available globally and helps support freight rates.
At the same time, carriers are balancing softer cargo demand on some of the world’s largest trade lanes.
Asia to North America volumes fell 7.4% in January 2026 as ongoing tariff pressures and softer consumer demand weighed on imports. Trade between Asia and Europe has also remained subdued compared to previous years.
Despite this, freight markets have avoided the sharp collapse many expected earlier in the year.
What This Means for Importers and Exporters
For businesses moving cargo internationally, the current market really shows just how interconnected geopolitics and supply chains have become.
Even companies not directly trading through the Middle East are being affected through:
Longer transit times
Reduced schedule reliability
Higher operational costs for carriers
Equipment imbalances in key export regions
Increased pressure on vessel space during peak periods
The market is also becoming far more reactive to sudden disruptions. Small changes in routing, conflict escalation or port congestion can quickly impact freight availability and pricing across multiple regions.
Importers and exporters should continue focusing on flexibility within their supply chains, particularly around inventory planning, lead times and booking strategies.
Capacity Growth Still Looms in the Background
While current conditions are helping support freight rates, the longer term outlook remains more complex.
The global container orderbook now sits at 36.6% of the existing fleet, a historically high figure that will continue adding significant capacity into the market over coming years.
At the same time, TEU mile demand growth for 2026 is forecast at just 1.4%, reflecting weaker trade volumes across major east-west trades.
Growth is expected to recover between 2027 and 2029, with average annual demand increases closer to 4%, however much will depend on global economic conditions, consumer demand and how ongoing geopolitical tensions evolve.
Freight rates are still forecast to decline over the broader forecast period as additional vessel supply enters the market.
The Biggest Variable Remains Geopolitics
Right now, the biggest challenge for global shipping is uncertainty.
The duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, any recovery in oil supply chains and the broader stability of the Middle East will continue to influence global freight markets throughout the remainder of 2026.
For container shipping, the market remains balanced between weaker cargo demand on one side and operational disruption limiting effective vessel supply on the other.
For importers and exporters, staying informed and remaining agile will be critical as supply chains continue adapting to rapidly changing global conditions.