Global Trade Set to Exceed US$35 Trillion in 2025 as Shipping Remains a Key Driver

Global trade is on track to surpass US$35 trillion for the first time in 2025, representing 7% growth year on year, according to the final Global Trade Update 2025 released by UNCTAD.

The maritime sector has played a central role in this expansion. Seaborne goods trade accounted for approximately US$1.5 trillion of the overall increase, reinforcing shipping’s importance to global commerce. Services trade also recorded strong growth of nearly 9%, although momentum is expected to moderate toward the end of the year.

Several regional and sectoral trends stand out in the latest data:

• East Asia led growth, with exports rising 9% and intra-regional trade up 10%

• Africa recorded strong gains, with imports increasing 10% and exports 6%

• South–South trade among developing economies outpaced the global average, growing 8%

• Manufacturing remained the primary engine of trade growth, with electronics up 14% and agriculture up 8%

• Automotive trade declined overall by 4%, though hybrid vehicle trade surged 22%

• Commodities showed mixed performance, with iron and steel trade jumping 40%, while fuel trade remained subdued

UNCTAD also highlights how geopolitical developments are reshaping global shipping and supply chains. Strategies such as friend-shoring, sourcing from allied countries, and near-shoring, which brings production closer to end markets, are regaining momentum. At the same time, trade concentration among major economies is increasing.

Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD expects underlying demand to remain relatively solid, but warns that slower economic growth, rising costs, and increasing debt pressures are likely to weigh on trade performance.

For vessel operators and ports, the message is clear: cargo volumes are holding up, but profitability is under pressure. Navigating this environment will require continued focus on efficiency, flexibility, and cost management as global trade dynamics continue to evolve.