Global Trade Remains Resilient, But Pressure Is Building

Global trade continued to expand strongly through 2025, with goods and services trade increasing by around US$2.5 trillion to reach approximately US$35 trillion worldwide.

That growth carried into early 2026, particularly across goods trade, although the outlook for the rest of the year is becoming more uncertain.

The United Nations expects global trade growth to slow as geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism and increasing trade costs continue to weigh on global markets. Recent growth is also becoming more price-driven than volume-driven, with rising energy, freight and compliance costs pushing trade inflation higher.

Conflict in the Middle East and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz are adding further pressure to global supply chains, while ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy continues to impact business confidence.

At the same time, global supply chains are continuing to shift. Many businesses are moving towards “friend-shoring” and “near-shoring”, with South-East Asia increasingly benefiting from redirected trade flows as US-China trade softens.

Manufacturing remains a key support for global trade, particularly across electronics, machinery, AI-related goods and renewable energy sectors such as batteries and hybrid vehicles.

While global trade remains resilient, the outlook for 2026 points to slower growth, rising costs and ongoing volatility across international supply chains.