Why Are Freight Rates Rising in Waves?
One of the biggest challenges facing importers and exporters in 2026 isn't simply higher freight rates, it's understanding why those rates continue to rise, fall and then rise again.
Recent data released by Xeneta and Container Trades Statistics shows the significant impact the Middle East crisis is having on global supply chains. Containerised imports into the Middle East fell 64% year-on-year in March, while exports declined by 62%, showing the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to regional and global trade.
However, the most interesting aspect of the analysis is not the initial disruption itself. It is the pattern that often follows.
The Wave Effect
Following a major supply chain disruption, freight rates rarely move in a straight line.
In the weeks immediately after the escalation of conflict, rates from China to Jeddah surged by 85%. They then eased back slightly, creating the impression that conditions were stabilising. Since then, rates have climbed again and are now expected to exceed the initial spike.
This pattern mirrors what occurred during the Red Sea crisis in 2023 and 2024, when freight rates surged, softened, and then rose to even higher levels months later.
For businesses managing freight budgets, this can create confusion. Temporary rate declines may appear to signal the worst is over, only for a second wave of increases to arrive shortly afterwards.
Why It Matters Beyond the Middle East
Even businesses with no direct exposure to the Middle East are feeling the impact.
As carriers adjust networks, reposition equipment and manage capacity, disruptions spread through global supply chains. Xeneta expects rates on major trade lanes, including Asia-Europe, Transpacific and Transatlantic routes, to remain significantly higher than pre-conflict levels.
This demonstrates how interconnected global shipping has become. A disruption in one region can quickly influence freight costs around the world.
What Should Businesses Be Doing?
In periods of volatility, access to accurate market information becomes increasingly important.
Businesses should be regularly reviewing their freight procurement strategies, understanding their exposure to spot market pricing and considering whether longer term or index-linked agreements may provide greater certainty.
It's also important to look beyond freight rates alone. Schedule reliability, transit times and carrier performance can have just as much impact on supply chain costs as the freight rate itself.
The Bottom Line
The latest market data suggests that the current disruption is still unfolding and that freight markets may remain volatile for some time.
While no one can predict exactly what happens next, understanding the patterns that follow major supply chain events can help businesses make more informed decisions and avoid being caught off guard by the next wave.
Source credit: Xeneta